Severe Weather Outlook - Days 4-8


Days 4 - 8 Day 4 Day 5 Day 6 Day 7 Day 8
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D4 Monday, September 27, 2021 - Tuesday, September 28, 2021 D7 Thursday, September 30, 2021 - Friday, October 1, 2021
D5 Tuesday, September 28, 2021 - Wednesday, September 29, 2021 D8 Friday, October 1, 2021 - Saturday, October 2, 2021
D6 Wednesday, September 29, 2021 - Thursday, September 30, 2021 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)

Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates a 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
 
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
 
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears highly unlikely during the entire period (e.g. less than a 30% probability for a regional severe storm area across the CONUS through the entire Day 4-8 period).