Severe Weather Outlook - Days 4-8


Days 4 - 8 Day 4 Day 5 Day 6 Day 7 Day 8
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D4 Wednesday, February 18, 2026 - Thursday, February 19, 2026 D7 Saturday, February 21, 2026 - Sunday, February 22, 2026
D5 Thursday, February 19, 2026 - Friday, February 20, 2026 D8 Sunday, February 22, 2026 - Monday, February 23, 2026
D6 Friday, February 20, 2026 - Saturday, February 21, 2026 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)

Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates a 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
 
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
 
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears highly unlikely during the entire period (e.g. less than a 30% probability for a regional severe storm area across the CONUS through the entire Day 4-8 period).