Severe Weather Outlook - Days 4-8


Days 4 - 8 Day 4 Day 5 Day 6 Day 7 Day 8
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D4 Friday, August 12, 2022 - Saturday, August 13, 2022 D7 Monday, August 15, 2022 - Tuesday, August 16, 2022
D5 Saturday, August 13, 2022 - Sunday, August 14, 2022 D8 Tuesday, August 16, 2022 - Wednesday, August 17, 2022
D6 Sunday, August 14, 2022 - Monday, August 15, 2022 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)

Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates a 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
 
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
 
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears highly unlikely during the entire period (e.g. less than a 30% probability for a regional severe storm area across the CONUS through the entire Day 4-8 period).